Postgraduate Researchers in Science Medicine Conference 2005: Abstracts
Predictors of widespread pain following a road traffic accident
Gwenllian Wynne-Jones; Gareth T Jones; Alan J Silman; Gary J Macfarlane
Introduction: Widespread body pain (WP) is reported by 16% of the population. It has been demonstrated that a road traffic accident leads to a modest increased risk of developing WP. However, amongst persons experiencing an accident there is no research investigating who is at high risk of developing WP.
Aim: To determine, amongst persons who have experienced an accident, which factors predict who will develop WP.
Methods: A prospective cohort study, recruited persons reporting an accident to their insurance company. A postal questionnaire measured pre-accident WP, mechanical factors associated with the accident, psychosocial and post-accident injury factors. Respondents free of pre-accident WP received a 12-month follow-up questionnaire measuring WP. Risk factors for WP at 12 months were identified using multivariate Poisson regression; results are expressed as Relative Risks with 95% Confidence Intervals.
Results: 954 participants at baseline were WP free pre-accident. 695 (73%) of these participants returned a follow-up questionnaire. Factors independently predicting new WP were: prior illness behaviour (3.5; 1.6-7.8), somatic symptoms (1.6; 0.9-2.7) and post-accident injuries (3.0; 1.7-5.3). Persons with all three factors experienced an eight-fold increase in risk.
Conclusions: We identified three factors predicting WP following an RTA. This information may be useful for targeting management towards those at greatest risk.
Gwenllian Wynne-Jones, arc Epidemiological Unit, The University of Manchester, Stopford Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL
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